Yes, for the larger-scale situation analyzed by GSM, a very
typical "Matsuno-Gill pattern"-like twin cyclonic vortices
are now just in the western coastline of Sumatera mainland.
The GSM analysis also shows a cold-surge-like northeasterly
are entering into South China Sea and reaches in the eastern
coast of Sumatera Island. This is associated with dominant
Siberian anticyclone as shown in the recent synoptic weather
map attached here, obtained from the JMA website:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/
(more maps are obtained also in Hokkaido Broadcast Co.Ltd:
http://www.hbc.co.jp/weather2/pro.html
involving JMA maps (in the international format) although
website captions are written in Japanese). By this situation
Japan is in a very cold situation with heavy snowfall in the
Japan-Sea side and the northern regions these days.
If the northeasterly works too strongly in NHM, NHM may not
reproduce the clouds in the western coast of Sumatera, because
this region becomes a dry area in the leeside of Bukit Balisan
(Sumatera mountains) and also Malay Peninsula (of which the
eastern coast a heavy rainfall is reproduced also in NHM).
NHM does not look reproducing moisture transport by the
westerly between the Matsuno-Gill twin vortices which may
be possible by taking broader area in the western (Indian-
Ocean) side in NHM.
Manabu in Kobe
(2011/12/24 15:37), SATREPS IOP 2011 wrote:
> <https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidql2HcG5YKS3DFnKjFXD_ojQaF2U2drgC2RB1GQ8ckt7wH4G_k8zYxtWfAihRPBV7KHSMHP6L-ey22hteFNPVR9Ib-YjEflgqO1NeVksTtHIUbctM8rg8KO8l_C9guCv2UUJLqORHpr7E/s1600/NHM201112240100LT-776625.jpg>
>
> Dear all:
>
> Please find out figures attached herewith.
>
> They are results numerical simulation based on GSM 0.5deg (upper left),
> NHM 10km (upper right), and NHM 2km (lower left) for 18Z 23 December
> (01LT 24 December). MIA-XDR CAPPI(2km) at the corresponding time (01LT
> 24 December) is shown in the lower right panel, too.
>
> The result of GSM simulation looks successfully showed a large scale
> disturbance approaching Sumatera which was also observed by GsMAP in my
> last post. Whereas, those calculated by NHM for both 10km and 2km didn't
> show any precipitation at all in those domain though the MIA-XDR
> observed rain echoes broadly expanded around Padang.
>
> It looks curious that precipitation calculated by HNM
> ---
> http://www.jamstec.go.jp/iorgc/harimau/simulation4/index_s.html
> http://www.jamstec.go.jp/iorgc/harimau/simulation4/index_v.html
> ---
> cannot enter the Mentawai Strait though GsMAP, GSM, and MIA-XDR showed
> large scale precipitation over the strait. Huuuuum.
>
> ~morishu
>
> --
> 森 修一 Shuichi MORI
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> 海洋研究開発機構(JAMSTEC)/地球環境変動領域(RIGC)
> 熱帯気候変動研究プログラム/海大陸気候研究チーム
> 〒237-0061 神奈川県横須賀市夏島町２−１５
> Tel： (046)867-9256（直通） Ｆax：(046)867-9255
> e-mail：morishu@jamstec.go.jp <mailto:morishu@jamstec.go.jp>
> HP：http://www.jamstec.go.jp/seika/pub-j/res/ress/morishu/
> ---------------------------------------------------------
>
> --
> Posted By SATREPS IOP 2011 to SATREPS IOP 2011
> <http://satreps-iop2011.blogspot.com/2011/12/nhm-simulation.html> on
> 12/24/2011 01:36:00 PM
>
